Wednesday June 20, 2012




The following is a ranking of Republican contenders for the Presidency in order of the likelihood of winning the 2008 Republican Party primary. It considers the strength of their campaign organization; grassroots support; media attention and buzz; donations and cash on hand; polling (straw polls, Internet, phone, and other survey methods), caucus, and primary election results; and delegate count.

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1. Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts

Romney's solid first place finishes in the Wyoming caucus, Michigan primary, and Nevada caucus, as well as the second place finish in the Iowa caucus and New Hampshire primary demonstrates reasonably solid, national support for the “tall, dark, and handsome” darling of mainstream media. He consequently leads the pack in terms of delegates.

However, if not for the saturating coverage of establishment media and his immense personal fortune, his campaign would already be bankrupt. Just $9.5 million in donations were reported in the third quarter with $9 million cash on hand. A personal loan of $17 million has covered the shortfall between advertising expenditures and contributions.

As well, Romney is a fake conservative who has at one point or another in his political career held a position with which you might agree. He is the consummate flip-flopper and that further vexes more principled voters.

2. John McCain, U.S. Senator from Arizona

McCain is the resilient, dependable, middle-of-the-road, benign imperialist. He’s running mostly on his name recognition and helped by the media’s obsession with touting him as a maverick. Consequently, he places reasonably well in traditional polls and has emerged victorious in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

In truth, he has hardly done anything that is not part and parcel of the Washington establishment. Emulating his fiscal practices as a member of Congress, the campaign spent more than it earned and has been forced to downsize. As with Giuliani and Romney, McCain campaign contributions in the third quarter -- about $6 million -- fell from the previous.

3. Mike Huckabee, Former Governor of Arkansas

Despite placing first in the Iowa caucus and gaining a number of delegates, his fundraising remains suspect and the theocratic appeal to a broad segment of evangelical Christians is not spellbinding the balance of likely Republican voters, let alone the rest of America.

Mainstream media continues to shower him with attention as they seem to find him “cute” and "charming", perhaps because of his dopey “aw, shucks” demeanor. Nevertheless, his performance in the Republican debates is characterized by pandering, intellectual absenteeism, and generality.

The governor's record combined with disingenuous, populist rhetoric proves him no friend of the taxpayer, no believer in sovereignty, and no civil libertarian.

4. Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas

With less effort in time and money, without the name recognition of his rivals, and with the establishment diligently undermining his viability, the good doctor secured respectable showings in Iowa, New Hampshire, Michigan, and Nevada. The campaign is financially sound and robust; it continues to draw steadily increasing millions from individual donors and maintains millions more cash on hand.

Though he’s not a polished orator, Paul is intelligent, disciplined, principled, consistent, and independent of the welfare-warfare system dominating American political life for the last 100 years. In these times when the American apple has fallen so far from the tree of liberty, he demonstrates political courage by tirelessly pushing for adherence to the Constitution and restoration of the American republic.

Corporate controlled, mainstream media despise Ron Paul because he is a throwback who stands to shock the American political landscape. Nevertheless, the American people are waking up to Dr. Paul.

5. Fred Thompson, Former U.S. Senator from Tennessee

He holds fifth place partly from average election performance and partly from the media saturation; this B-grade actor enamors them. Thompson has little substance but the fact that he is tall, has a deep voice, and talks tough attracts some mindless “conservatives”.

Thompson entered the race late and was accordingly able to report over $9 million in donations since forming an exploratory committee. However, he has gained almost no traction since joining the race and there is a lack of grassroots excitement.

6. Rudy Giuliani, Former Mayor of New York City

National polls no longer indicate "America's Mayor" leads the pack. More important, he has been defeated by nearly all his rivals in nearly every caucus and primary to date. His greatest asset remains generous attention from mainstream media though his radar signature is obscured by the rest of the pack.

Giuliani seemed poised to assume leadership over the neoconservative wing of the party and had establishment backing. His scare tactics with regard to the War on Terror has successfully appealed to voters still under the illusion that invading Iraq had something to do with the attacks of 9/11. However, the American voter has other choices to prosecute America's global war.

The campaign reported raising over $10 million in the third quarter, a decline from the first and second, with $16 million cash on hand.

7. Duncan Hunter, U.S. Representative from California

Hunter has some commendable points on trade and immigration but is fundamentally off the mark in his diehard support for the Iraq War. His fundraising has been abysmal, evidence of supporters seems lacking, and the clobbering he has taken in primary elections is severe.

8. Alan Keyes, Former Ambassador

The man is highly articulate, energetic, and intelligent. Unfortunately, very few people even realize he is a candidate. Despite his apparent support for the War on Terror, there could be a place for him in the Paul administration.



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