Wednesday June 20, 2012




The following is a ranking of Republican contenders for the Presidency in order of the likelihood of winning the 2012 Republican Party primary. It considers the strength of their campaign organization; grassroots support; media attention and buzz; donations and cash on hand; and polling (straw polls, Internet, phone, and other survey methods).

by Michael Chapdelaine


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1. Mitt Romney, Former Governor of Massachusetts

“Tall, dark, and handsome” Romney’s confident, composed, consistent performances in the Republican debates frame him as serious Presidential material. Polls show reasonably solid, national support for Romney thanks to lavish coverage by mainstream media of the wealthy, respected, former chief executive of public and private sectors.

With so much money and attention about him, the electorate widely excuses his malleable politics: at one point or another in his political career, he’s held a position with which you might agree. This is even spun to his advantage as he stays within the zombie public’s middle-of-the-road comfort zone.

Backed strongly by Wall Street players for the banking elite, financial reports for the third quarter show Romney receiving $14.2 million. Despite spending over $12 million in recent months, his campaign, to date, has nearly $14.7 million cash on hand lingering from sizable donations in previous quarters.

2. Herman Cain

The media has cleverly gone full force to promote the message of “Washington outsider,” Herman Cain, former Chief Executive Officer of Godfather’s Pizza. He is a front runner because the powers-that-be have decided to allow it while suppressing his rivals.

His performances in the Republican debates are characterized by pandering and tough talk – like elimination of the Environmental Protection Agency and a broad-stroke slam on Occupy Wall Street protestors. While Cain is put in the spotlight, the businessman is loudly offering up his plans, such as the one to resuscitate the American economy by supplanting the current tax code with a 9 % corporate income tax rate, a 9 % income tax rate and a 9 % national sales tax. However, media coverage is conveniently less attuned to the fact that Cain’s “expert” economic analysis foretold blue skies and sunshine just weeks away from the stock market crash of 2008.

His fundraising reveals backers, large or small, are not putting their money where Cain’s mouth is. He raised only $2.8 million while spending over $1.9 million from July 1 to September 30, ending the quarter with $1.3 million cash on hand and $675,000 in debt.

3. Ron Paul, U.S. Representative from Texas

The good doctor is finding respectable, steady support in the polls and delivering consistent, targeted messages in debates despite an establishment diligently undermining his viability in a fear-driven repeat of their 2008 efforts. He has forced, assisted by the inescapable reality of current affairs, discussion on a range of key national issues from the Federal debt to foreign misadventures. While his rivals argue over the nuts and bolts of revitalizing a faltering U.S. empire, Dr. Paul remains focused on the heart of republican matters – like the existence of a suffocating, private central-bank, the Federal Reserve.

Dr. Paul is showing more confidence to compliment his always present intelligence, discipline, principle, consistency, and independence of thought amidst the welfare-warfare system dominating American political life for the last 100 years. He is experiencing greater name recognition in the American electorate, for better or worse, with each passing day. However, he remains the authoritarian corporatocracy’s object of enmity; thus, controlled media outlets are by-and-large dedicated to precluding his ascension.

As expected, the campaign is financially sound and robust; it continues to draw millions from hundreds of thousands of enthused individual donors. The third quarter report shows his campaign collected over $8.2 million and has $3.6 million cash on hand with no debt.

4. Rick Perry, Governor of Texas

Gov. Perry is given heavy attention from mainstream media out of proportion to his failing strength in polls and smoldering grassroots fire. Certainly, his incoherency and visible discomfort in debating his peers would not otherwise carry him to a top slot.

Rick Perry is, in truth, a hardcore political chameleon eager to float on strong political winds; a fair-weather “conservative” who should most definitely not be mistaken as a friend of the taxpayer, as a believer in sovereignty, and as a civil libertarian. He has gone from endorsing Al Gore’s 1988 Presidential run to rhetorically advocating for Texas’ secession to preserve the state’s rights.

Regardless, Perry’s big-money backers have seen to it that he has over $17 million in contributions to report in the third quarter; only 4 percent (about 22,000 people) came from donors giving less than $200. Having spent little, the campaign has $15 million on hand to pursue the President’s chair in the Oval Office.

5. Michele Bachmann, U.S. Representative from Minnesota

Michelle Bachman is sort of like Sarah Palin; but, with a great deal more cerebral horsepower. Mainstream media can’t avoid covering the Republican-hijacked Tea Party’s anointed superwoman. Notwithstanding the truly boring and conventional message she delivers, she has had strong showings in select polls.

Bachmann’s campaign has raised a few million but nothing in the top-tier ballpark.

6. Newt Gingrich, Former Speaker of the House

Gingrich is the haughty man on the debate stage still trying to leverage his decades-old Contract with America. Admittedly, he has name recognition and can point to his formerly powerful political position and Washington experience; of course, he is establishment all the way. Gingrich offers nothing in the way of ideas or leadership that can save the Republic. Polls reflect that without a compelling message, looks, money, or charisma, his chances of charming voters appear slim.

Gingrich’s bid is seriously undermined by his campaign’s finances: it’s over $1 million in debt while third quarter contributions only amounted to $807,962.

7. Rick Santorum, U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania

Rick could make a financial argument that he should be number 6 on this list; but, it’s doubtful anyone would really care to listen. Neither bright nor articulate, Senator Santorum compensates with a combative, smug demeanor. He steadfastly keeps pom poms in hand for routinely cheering on America’s global conquest, drawing in those ignorant Americans still under the illusion that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq had something to do with the terrorist attacks of 9/11. The end result: single-digit support in national polls.

Contributions to his campaign in the third quarter are correspondingly unimpressive: about $700,000. Demonstrating financial ineptitude as a candidate just as he does as a member of Congress, his campaign is over $70,000 in debt.

8. Jon Huntsman, Former Governor of Utah

This run-of-the-mill Republican is receiving neither media saturation nor campaign donations. Consequently, his campaign is both deeply in debt and without traction absent grassroots excitement or diehard supporters.

9. Gary Johnson, Former Governor of New Mexico

Johnson has to be complimented in these substantively barren times. Unfortunately his timidity and the near total absence of establishment recognition of his candidacy means very few Republican voters outside New Mexico will have heard of him. Johnson’s solidarity with Ron Paul on America’s most consequential issues – like the perils of an empire-oriented foreign policy – could yield a place for him in the Paul administration.


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